![]() In the past 20 years, official projections have usually underestimated future net migration levels. Projections of future net migration are inherently uncertain.By the year ending December 2022, EU net migration was negative, according to official estimates. EU citizens made up a majority of immigration and net migration in the run-up to the 2016 EU referendum.Almost all of the increase in non-EU arrivals from 2019 to 2022 occurred through the study, work and humanitarian routes. ![]() The rise in overall net migration was driven by an increase in non-EU citizens coming to the UK.For example, increases in study migration have contributed to net migration in the short run, although most international students leave the UK within a few years. Rising emigration may put downward pressure on net migration from 2023 onwards.Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once: the war in Ukraine, the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders, an increase in international student numbers and high demand for workers in the health and care sector.The UK has experienced broadly similar levels of migration compared to other high-income countries, on average, over the past few decades. ![]()
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